Saptorshi Gupta: Estimating trends and burden of scabies (1990 - 2021): Results from Global Burden of Disease Study

Background: Scabies is a neglected tropical disease believed to be more prevalent in resource-poor nations. Research on trends and forecasting of scabies rates have been limited. Methods: This paper uses joinpoint regression and spatial analysis to estimate age-standardized rates (ASR) of scabies incidence and prevalence in 204 countries and regions from 1990 to 2021. Rates forecasting was done using the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model. Results: Spatial clusters of high scabies prevalence were present in tropical Latin America, Southeast Asia, and Pacific nations, and rates have shown an increasing trend in high-income regions like Australasia and certain parts of Europe. Scabies incidence rates were projected to remain the same in most regions and rise in a few. Conclusion: To control the burden, it is essential to improve scabies diagnosis through objective tests like qPCR and dPCR and conduct Mass-Drug administration (MDA) in pockets of high prevalence.