Modelling uncertainty: Exploring probability from a modelling perspective

Uncertainty underpins many real situations in our world. These situations can range from tossing a coin and being unsure whether it will land on heads or tails, to not knowing the size of the next kūmara harvested, to being uncertain about how many beds will be available tomorrow in a busy hospital’s intensive care unit. As humans, we intuitively develop models to help us reason about uncertain situations and form expectations for how likely future events are to happen, based on our experiences, observations, and current understanding about the world. 

Probability modelling supports us to make predictions, adjust our expectations, and make sense of the uncertainty around us. In this wāhanga, we will explore the teaching of probability from a modelling perspective. After discussing what probability modelling is, we will present the Conceptual Modelling (CM) framework, and then use several classroom-based problem scenarios to further illustrate the key features of the CM framework. The wāhanga ends with a focus on implications for teaching and assessment.